NVIDIA just reported Q326. The market first loved it (with especially huge jumps in Cipher Mining and IREN after-hours on Wednesday), but the immediate excitement quickly faded the next day.
- This was a very strong quarter with a massive ramp in sales/supply.
- They had a record +$10B in net new revenue, which led to the strongest sequential growth in 2 years.
- Gross margin continues to rise, and mgmt hinted it will remain at mid-70%s over the next year (a few Qs of Blackwell Ultra then Rubin's release).
- FCF margin rebounded from the weakness here in Q3.
- Inventory has strongly risen over the past 3Qs – for a reason.
- They finally did have China GPU sales, but it was only a blip ($50M of H20s).
- Mgmt is projecting having vision to a total of $500B in sales across 2025-2026. The chart implied $350B of sales through 2026, but I think it's more.